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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: donald sew who wrote (16747)8/24/2001 9:24:48 PM
From: Kip518  Read Replies (3) of 52237
 
....lets not also forget that SEPT/OCT is statistically the worse timeframe for the market

Don, do you know this from your own research or have you like the rest of us simply accepted this idea as common market wisdom? I ask because Don Hays, who is super bullish right now, had the following in his report this morning.

So, here’s another big piece of positive historical patterns. We have been conditioned to believe that October is the hideous month that we have to crawl in our hole and try to avoid. That is based upon several of the big crashes in history occurring in that month. But that is not true. In fact, it is exactly the opposite. When you look at the months of the year and the performance of the S&P 500 in those months during the last ten years (since 1992) you find the following performance.

January 1.53%
February 0.63%
March 1.44%
April 1.44%
May 0.98%
June 1.57%
July 0.77%
August -0.91%
September 1.11%
October 1.85%
November 1.50%
December 1.80%

I’m indebted to Jason Trennert of Ed Hyman’s ISI group for this historical comparison. But you can see that August, this month is where the damage has traditionally been done. That actually leads to the next five months with enormous upside bias.

haysmarketfocus.com
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