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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Kip518 who wrote (16751)8/24/2001 10:19:24 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Kip,

That is interesting, but did you note that it is not statistically viable, since the data was only from 1992. We call it a "CLOSED SET ANALYSIS", where variables are limited. I have not done the research myself, but have it seen it written up often about SEPT/OCT and I do believe it was based on a viable analysis of over 30 years.

Just subjectively, the period of 1992 onwards was basicly a bull market, so the majority was basicly restricted to a bull market analysis. I believe 92-94 were bullish with 95-99 being very bullish.

So if one assumes that we are still in a bull market then maybe, and I only said maybe, Don Hays analysis may be more appropiate. Unfortunately for Don Hays - its hard to argue that we are in a bull market. Saying that, I am also aware that some consider a drop down to about 7000 in the DOW to still be within the parameters of a bull market.

Per the info I am going buy, Oct is actually not that bearish but the key is that a bottom commonly arrives in OCT with a relatively strong rally that follows.

Thanks for supplying that info from Don Hays. Im actually a little surprised that he made such a strong comment on a CLOSED SET ANALYSIS(limited variables). Not saying that he is wrong, just that it is a CLOSED SET ANALYSIS.
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