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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: besttrader who wrote (33523)	8/25/2001 8:13:35 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (3) of 37746

WHY IS CSCO'S NEWS GOOD???? Chambers says this simply to stabilize tech market. Stabilization is now the new VISABILITY word! Why can't anyone see these CEO's for what they are..PUMP MACHINES! They need the capital markets to stay in business and to help their suppliers. But this STABILIZATION concept leaves a lot to be desired! I hope anyone who is not a TRADER stays as far away from this market or they will suffer like they have never suffered before! NO THERE WILL BE NO V RECOVERY, NO U RECOVERY ONLY PERHAPS A LIMPING LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! Please inform me if anyone remembers the last time the fed moved as aggressively as they just did?? 1982. Whats the difference?...... We were coming from a HYPER-INFLATION enviroment where the norm was UNDERCAPACITY, and the Certificate of Deposits were yielding a 18-22%.....THATS RIGHT FOLKS!! From 1976-1982 you did not want to be near the market since you got the double digit from the bank. This did stymie and inhibit corporate growth and innovation until REAGAN entered the picture in 80. REAGAN and the fed borrowed more and lowered the fed rate to INCREASE CAPACITY!! We are now in the opposite situation in our economic cycle. We have a CONTRACTING economy, and a very serious OVER CAPACITY that will not be corrected w/ the lowering of fed rates!!!!! The over capacity that is hinged to a contracting manufacturing sector will have DIRE CIRCUMSTANCES w/out new utilization avenues for the over capacity. We got away with this from 95-2000 w/ the INTER-NUT buildout which was associated w/ the telecom industry. Through in the wire-less BOOM to BUST perception and you could use all that was manufactured. But these bafoons on wall street got so greedy w/ the IPO market they would not have 5 companies in a desired segement of the utilization chain, they needed 30-50! Now you know why there will be slower growth going forward then we had in 1992-1995! In conclusion play the market don't let the market play YOU! CHIPS will always be needed, but only for the rights price!

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