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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16585)8/25/2001 8:22:04 AM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
Terry. Of course all commodity go down during a recession.

What I said was that the GSCI was showing A LOT less weakness than than the CRB. And it is. That's the point I was making.

The GSCI was far lower in late 1998/early 1999. Was that also a 1930s deflation?

Yes, if you were in the oil and gas industry.

Is now a 1930s deflation for technology? Yes.

Each recession simultaneously has deflation of some sectors accompanied by the beginnings of an inflation of prices in the credit worthy sectors where the tidal wave of Fed credit is flowing that will emerge as leaders in the future.

Are you saying the economy has no sectors left that are credit worthy?! Sorry, but I don't think that's a viable argument.

Only a very small %age of investors today were actively investing through a serious recession and Bear Market like 1973-74 or 1981-82.

1990-91 was a mild recession/bear market and the 1987 crash was over too quickly to be a real bear market. As long as you weren't on margin you were ahead in less than a year! Real Bear Markets grind away month after month for several years as part of the process that forces most investors to capitulate, forming THE bottom.

Only a relatively small number of people investing now have been through that process as active investors or financial professionals.

Isopatch
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