I hear you, Greggy... but here is a challenge
1. what are any similarities between this recession and past recessions since 1950 ???
(thus why should lower rates mean anything?)
2. how can foreign economies be anything but a drag on US economy now ???
(they have declined in lag to us, are more tied to mfg which is very weak, and still view the USdollar as expensive)
3. give me a good reason why the last asset class will be spared, real estate ???
(in almost every single recession in history, NO asset class is spared)
of course, Roach's points seem all too pat
if we are in for a bad recession, then we will see reflex rallies
why shouldnt we be due for one now?
the biggest bubble in US history is bound to lead into the biggest indigestion period
do you really believe Cisco is in good shape now?
if so, then we couldnt be farther apart in perceptions
this bear wont be done until CSCO is reasonably priced with a PE under 45-50
that means to me a price around 8-10 like JDUnphaz
plenty of bear reflex rallies between 1929-1932
sometimes the simple pat views are most correct when seen from afar
you know, the bigger trend
oversold conditions are perfect for the manipulators and spindoctors to ply their trade, promote the best case scenarios, and fool many
sellers just prefer not to sell after prices stabilize following declines
I will watch the downtrend lines that Vendit puts out in charts
if memory serves, NazComp should stall near 1950-1970
we have absolutely dreadful reports upcoming in Sept (dreadful is being kind)
with foreign economies weakening, forward guidance should continue to suck suck suck
NO RECOVERY WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THE USDOLLAR COMES DOWN MORE
right now, the 7% US$ drop vs Euro is tiny
European economy is nowhere ready to respond to lower dollar costs in capital goods
they are sliding down, and will slide worse
irresponsible Euro Central Bankers have steadfastly refused to bring down interest rates
that essentially gaurantees further weakness in the continent's economy
we Americans tend to view the world in isolated terms too much
why should a recovery come now or soon?
the Asians have only begun to hit the shitter
the Euros have much more downside due to monetary policy errors that continue
the South Americans are gaining downward momentum with Mex and Brazil declining
we saw unprecedented upward economic progress and momentum in 1998-2000
now we will see unprecedented downward economic decline in 2001-2002
it fed upon itself on the way up
it is feeding upon itself on the way down
until spring 2002, all rallies might best be shorted
please reply to the above top questions
I really want your view
something besides "my gut tells me we are ready to recover..."
this is really a worldwide phenomenon now
the momentum is still very much in the downward direction
appreciate your considered response
just like in music, there is power in harmony
Europe, South America, and Asia are in echoing octaves now
it aint good
thanks, Jim |
