I've spent a lot of time digging into PLY. Attended their booth at PDAC, studied management's background, studied everything shown on SEDAR until it was almost memorized, drove to Sudbury for a meeting with Briggs, e-mailed back and forth with Birrell at MMI, talked with many geos and sought their opinions, and much, much more. Over time, I came to several conclusions. As we are now at a standstill, perhaps they'll help others.
1. While seeking a jv. deal, it was always my opinion management really wanted to go it alone. If the right deal came along, (big cash up front and only for E1 South anomaly) they would take it. Otherwise they would not. If next week they announce a jv. deal, investors can be assured it will be a good one for them BUT... I doubt it will happen. Too much time is slipping away. Management wants to drill NOW.
2. If PLY go it alone, a PP will be needed. Fear of that is what's hurting PLY's share price. On reflection, I believe that fear is unwarranted. Here's why.
Firstly - I doubt PLY would write a large one at this time. Management hates dilution and I believe them when they say this. My bet is any PP will be small.
Secondly - the price may be higher than thought. If someone offered me a warrant with a share, I'd pay higher than current market price and be grateful to get it. Think about it.
Thirdly - stock from any PP will be subject to a minimum 4 month hold. It will not hit the market immediately. Add in the fact that all stock from the original PP has been absorbed. Also add in the fact that we've had no heavy sell-off. Once investors know PLY's future course, the stock will rally IMO.
Lastly, a few personal notes.
If Briggs et al are high personal spenders, I'll eat my shirt in Times Square. By dress and manner, there's no indication of it. They also run an office cut to the bone. They have avoided high-priced I.R. flack. If you call, you talk with a director. Their brochures are low-priced efforts that simply tell their story.... and on it goes. It's a very refreshing change from the all to common Howe St. hustlers who give mining exploration a bad name. It's also one of the reasons why I believe they'll fight against dilution.... and keep any PP small.
IMO Briggs above all is a geologist. Yes he can promote and may be good at it but he's good only because he believes in what he's doing. He believes in his project. That's very important - perhaps more than many realize. For some time I've had a hunch Briggs knows more than he's disclosed. If it's educated conjecture he can rightly do that.... but I think he knows. I think they'll pull some good holes at San Miguel. I'm betting on it.
For the above reasons I've been buying. Wish I'd been around for Yorkton's panic late Thursday. Only got a bit of that plus some more Friday.... before Merrill's run.
Bob |
