Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (7709)	8/26/2001 5:16:58 AM
From: elmatador	of 74559

Airtravel will Collapse. Magnitude 7 on our scale. The Cold War and throw into the open a lot of technologies previously pushed to the military establishment, a.k.a Defence. It is not only the technologies that were thrown in the civilian use: The scientists and engineers (63% of the scientists and engineers were working in defence related activities during the Cold War) were also let loose. If you have a captive market for your transceiver, now you had to re-package it as a VSAT and try sell in Argentina or any other bush. Cushy jobs and 'price is no objection' technologies faced a daunting future. Voila! the Internet abracadabra cum tech boom came to being. But now the tech boom has fizzled. Now the tectonic plates have to release some force. We will have an earthquake. The echoes of the Cold War started to come down: first sat business. (Expect satellite TV to go down the drain too and perhaps soon. Magnitude still to be classified) Next we have airtravel collapsing: Boeing is suffering. Posted its first full-year loss in 1997 after 50 years of profits. Its customers are hemorraging money. The US has a de-regulated airtravel but International travel is still regulated by a government sanctioned cartel the IATA. Most probably international airtravel is subsidizing domestic travel in the same way long distance subsidize local calls. Airtravel is poised to collapse because it is showing the marks of a dead man walking. When you read something like this: "Boeing is now branching into such areas as satellites, air traffic control management, aftermarket servicing and maintenance, and broader financial services. A couple of LEDs should lit in your brain. And then, Moved HQ to Chicago to change corporate culture. Hey, this is the automakers in the early eighties when the Japanese and Arabs were teaching them how to make automobiles (post oil shock)! Acquired Hughes' satellite business for $3.85 billion, Connexion by Boeing, for example, is a drive to install high-speed Internet service on commercial planes. Coming late to the Internet boom? Well, things move real slow in the aircraft business. The future of air transport is Eva Air. (My work horse from Jakarta to San Francisco via Taipei.) Back of the plane carry electronics, front of the plane carry passenger in four classes. Lots of them going to Vegas for gambling. I don't know if after the Asian crisis the Vegas traffic diminished or will continue.

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