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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: chowder who wrote (7012)8/26/2001 10:38:50 AM
From: jim_p  Read Replies (3) of 23153
 
Brother Bum,

Some interesting numbers on the three NG companies with the highest valuations:

PENG, KWK and EVG all operate CBM.

Production costs for 2Q:

PENG $.53 per Mcfe

EVG $.85 per Mcfe

KWK $1.51 per Mcfe (185% higher than PENG and 78% higher than EVG)

2Q 2001 vs. 2Q 2000 productions costs:

EVG $.85 vs. $.79, up 8% Not bad.

PENG $.53 vs. .47 up 12% Not good.

KWK $1.51 vs. 1.07 up 41% VERY BAD!!!

KWK's trend in production costs over the last four quarters:

9/30/2000 $1.05 Per Mcfe
12/31/2000 $1.29 per Mcfe
3/31/2001 $1.37 per Mcfe
6/30/2001 $1.51 per Mcfe

Total cash costs per Mcfe:

KWK
Production: $1.51
G & A .19
Interest .59
Total $2.29

PENG:
Production: $.53
G & A .19
Interest .59
Total $1.31

EVG
Production: $.85
G & A .29
Interest .28
Total $1.42

Cap-x costs per Mcfe?

For the 6 Mos ended 6/30/01, KWK spent $21.1MM or $2.03 per Mcfe and production went to 10.38 Bcf in 2Q 2001 from 9.97 Bcf. in 2Q 2000. Had it not been for some retroactive accounting adjustments for payouts, production would have actually declined.

$2.29 to get the NG out of the ground, and $2.03 just to maintain production flat. (no growth)

Looks like it takes $4.32 per Mcfe just for KWK to breakeven and maintain production.

The actual price realized by KWK last Q was $3.09, and current price as of Friday was $2.77 at Henry Hub, and $2.31 in the Western region.

Valuation:

Stock price multiple of 2000 CF:

EVG 21.02X

PENG 9.19X

KWK 6.93X

Industry Average 4.02X

Stock price multiple of 2001 annualized CF:

EVG 7.68X

PENG 7.03X

KWK 5.23X

Industry average 2.87X

Leverage:

KWK 81.24%

EVG 40.46%

PENG 2%

Growth 2Q 2000 over 2001:

KWK 4.09% (due to accounting adjustments)

PENG -.82% (second quarter with negative growth)

EVG +86.45%

Jim
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