Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 261.90

+0.4%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (51152)	8/26/2001 5:37:54 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 70976

G., I think Jim Morgan's "overripe bananas" analogy comes into play here. The only thing most people do with overripe bananas is throw them out. Although some do use them to make banana bread or such like. Trailing edge capacity which is unused, is more likely to be thrown out especially if it can't be profitably upgraded to leading edge. With Cu, 300mm and less than 0.15µ feature sizes being the leading edge, it wouldn't surprise me to see substantial amounts of trailing edge capacity shut down. E.g. With both Toshiba and Hitachi cutting 20,000 jobs, corresponding fab closures are also likely. I'm still not willing to bet on a once in the Universe's lifetime outcome. The world isn't likely to come to an end within the next few months. Ian

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