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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (4425)8/27/2001 2:08:45 AM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
John,

I cannot agree with you that the sole cause of the rise of the price of a barrel of crude in the early '70's was due to the cheapening of the USD. It played a part, no question. But so did the fact that the Arabs were adamantly opposed to the results of the latest skirmish with the thorn in their side in Palestine, and the fact that at that crux in history, they controlled the margin of the world crude oil market, with both the North Sea and North Slope yet to play out. I'm sorry, but I think you are not factoring enough elements into what made the cartel able to corner the market then, and why it can't work to corner the market today.

In regards to your reference to the Winniski article. I read it when you first cited it. I remain unconvinced. Gold is trivial. The world is a much more complicated thing today than it was in 1500 when a few jewelers, goldsmiths and hoarders controlled the world supply of safes. They set the standard for gold to be the repository of value. It was merely an anachronism and a bit of silliness that the trade lasted as long as it did. Gold is a trivial resource in modern economies. The sooner we disabuse ourselves of the notion that it has intrinsic value, the better off we'll be.

-Ray
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