valutrader,
Ahhh, a trip down memory lane, yeah, I was there and involved.
I still disagree, the XAU stocks were on their way down, having suffered the Et Tu Brute of the Aussie gov't sale (supreme timing that) on the long July 4 1997 weekend and the October market drop in 97 was the kiss kiss goodbye for four years for XAU in the 100's.
That was the beginning of the new paradigm and gold was old old old paradigm. It was give me dot coms or give me box makers, don't give me no stuffy hick gold stuff. Heck I was ducking gold companies falling off of cliffs into oblivion (had a few that no longer exist, exited just prior big drop, but got stung on some of the big names) and making money on tech stocks to cover gold stock losses. If you can't beat'em, join'em, ggg.
That was also the beginning of the most recent successful assault on gold as a unit of monetary value by the powers that be.
That was then, this is now, and now the new paradigm is going to get adjusted in a Tidal Wave of Debt and the old paradigm gets dusted off for a new era.
If there is a massive sell off (which I doubt, btw) then the PM stocks may sell off also, to fund the losses or answer the margin calls in other stocks.
But, if that happens (again, I doubt it will), hold for the first assault on gold stocks, IMO, as it will not have the follow through of recent years. IF we have a big sell off in the general market, that is quick and furious instead of just meandering down to support via tax loss selling, (which is what I expect), then I suspect those waiting for a buy point in the low 40's XAU may be seeing the gold train depart the platform with great haste before it gets very close to that level.
JMHO,
Roebear |
