Carranza asks a key question. QCOMs business prospects look very bright, with Nok, China, and India falling into place. But is it a good stock to hold, can it rise in a bear market?
I don't know if it is possible to say how long or deep this bear market will be. There certainly is some evidence that we could get into a serious economic decline due to a combination of poor economy, high debt levels, and over-valued stocks. But I don't know of anyone who can look out over several years with much confidence.
This question is what motivated me to join SI, ...when I get into a discussion about a problem, I almost always learn something that helps me.
So far, I have found Don Hays, who has some excellent indicators, and provides excellent discussion of these indicators several times a week. In some posts last weekend, I gave some indication of his thinking....he currently believes that we are at a market bottom similar to 1962, 1974 and 1987 after those serious market declines, and he forecasts a significant rally this fall.
My plan, fwiw, is to give the rally a chance to unfold, and depending on what his indicators say, either sell some of my qcom (I am currently 95% qcom, due to having sold all of my other 'ltbh' positions in the last year), or leave it invested.
That is what I have come up with so far, I would be interested to hear comments about other approaches, or evaluations of Hays. (www.haysmarketfocus.com, free one month subscription).
Robin |
