Amati vs Westell, DMT vs CAP ADSL Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amati vs Westell, DMT vs CAP ADSL

WSTL 6.030

-2.7%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: j rector who wrote (473)	7/7/1996 10:08:00 PM
From: jttmab	of 1365

I'll take a stab at your first two..... Re: Positive results from trials, I had thought we were going to hear some news/results on the GTE trials at Supercom 96; but I haven't seen any. With the results we've heard to date which have been all good, albeit meager, I would be really surprised if there was bad news (with the exception of specific vendor product performance). Re: Conversion of telco switches...Ariel is planning on mass production 3Q97 (for ADSL) which may imply the ability to provide "significant" production 2Q97. That seems to say large orders being placed...perhaps....as early as 1Q97. If you believe that Wall Street looks out 12 to 18 months..then the ADSL stocks ought to start moving. It seems like ADSL is the choice for the US, while VDSL may have a reasonable shot in Europe or Pacific Rim countries where the line loops are shorter. IF... VDSL goes in Eur/Asia AMTX could have a nice advantage with their relationship with NEC though I see more posts downplaying the VDSL effort as too early. HDSL is a long may off since the line loops have to be quite short. Final point in your supplemental question and I expect there could be a lot of disagreement here from other members, but I think that initial capital investment isn't the issue....Initial (large) production will be outsourced much the way USRX outsources modems to avoid capital investment. <<If the RBOCS move fast...>> That's a good question...historically, I don't think that the RBOCS are fast movers, but the Telecommunications Bill is a strong motivator for the RBOCS to move fast. I was at a meeting a few weeks ago with several RBOCS in attendance and they generally felt a lot of pressure to provide access to ISPs, etc. though they didn't seem to have any consensus on how they would accomplish access but they seemed to agree that it was going to be fast. I did ask my local ISP if they have any plans to provide ADSL access and when and got the response that they had started talking to Bell Atlantic about leasing ADSL access but no time table was established. (I note that it took me a few transfers to get to someone who could spell ADSL). A miscellaneous note...the RBOCS and carriers, were slamming the cable companies pretty hard about not having a clue as to what two-way communications meant. Jim

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