SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 170.90-1.3%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: marginmike who wrote (103314)8/28/2001 7:45:22 AM
From: Robin Plunder  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
Here are some interesting comments from Hays about his method:

"Let me end this by restating a principal. There is no way you can tell a market top, or bottom by being an economist, or a fundamentalist that is trying to predict earnings. Value-Line did a survey/report of all the earnings projections made by widely followed analysts over a long-term period. It was amazing how far off the target they were. ...earnings always top out six months or more afterthe stock market. And at the bottom, the same exact trends in reverse. The stock market itself is one of the best indicators to tell when the economy is going to improve. So the world (and virtually all the prominent strategists) don't have a chance. They have the cart before the horse.
If you will depend on certain indicators that have a long history of foretelling the market bottoms and tops, you can call the market very effectively. There will always be some crazy inter-trends that confuse investors.."

His method reminds me of the method of IBD, to some extent, in that the rules put forward by IBD involve looking at the data from the market rather than from the economy. In Hays case, the arms index, for example, is strictly a ratio calculated from market data....no economic input.

Is the arms index a valid indicator, and if so, how would one demonstrate that it is valid?

Robin
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News