Before you go beating yourself up over your unpreparedness, Allan, I think it's important to remember that there are myriad "key" releases, most of which have had little impact. Also, frankly, sometimes the reaction has been counter to what one would expect. Tomorrow's GDP revision is a classic case of a potential market moving number. Yesterday, someone here was saying that a revision to 0% growth was priced in, and we could bounce on the news. Yet to me, 0% and worse still negative growth is NOT priced in. Or if it's even .2% growth, will that be such a banner surprise that the market will fly? Or can you get caught by a headfake, etc.
I think your strategy that I've observed -- bite the middle, take good risk reward trades based on the charts and support levels NOT on fundamentals (which I have been scolded for bringing up) -- has been quite successful for you. My guess is that trying to anticipate moves has been less so, in the past. And trying to catch the middle of a news-inspired move in this market could be risky, as headfakes have abounded.
Just my 2 cents, as if you really need it. Largely, this is for my own edification too, as I had been thinking that a nice drift up into the GDP numbers woulda been a great short, even though I've vowed to myself not to try that game <g>
the freep |
