Dale, regarding you post #4150.
I have always believed that for IOMG to establish the Zip as standard
PC gear, it must be extremely aggressive in establishing market share
and reach critical mass of installed base ASAP. Once a critical mass
of installed users have been reached, things will fall in place naturally
and market acceptance will be automatic as a result of compatibility.
(Microsoft has done this so well.) When enough users own the Zip,
others will buy it just to be able to interchange data. This is especially
true in business and industries. I think the critical mass is around 10-15
million users.
Syquest had an installed base of 2 million units, but it took them many years
to get there. I believe that if the Zip can out sell the LS120 at least 5 to 1
for next 2 years, Zip will be a new standard. That 's because all OEMs
including Compag will carry Zip as a result. With the Zip 's established
momentum over the LS120, I think this can easily be done.
Compag is not IOMG 's problem or competitor, the LS120, 3M, and MKE are.
I strongly believe that IOMG must take pre-emptive strikes at the LS120
while it is way ahead in the game - and the recent $50 rebate is just an
excellent move toward this end. If profits and margin suffer for 1-2 quarters,
so be it - as long they can establish the Zip as standard by 1998, all longterm
investors will be very happy. The LS120 should be given no chance
to establish and grow market share in the "aftermarket" or in the "commercial
market", as Compag smartly puts it.
I also believe that IOMG must now aggressively attack the LS120 's intended
market, i.e., the "commercial market" - and showed to the world that
the Zip is also preferred in that market over the LS120.
The LS120 's single advantage over the Zip is 1.44FD compatibility,
and this is the single thread that has given the LS120 some hopes of
competing with the Zip. Its promoters are using this feature quite a bit
as a strong selling point for the LS120 over Zip. There are major flaws
here in this logic, and IOMG should move to counter and educate the
consumers on this point and overall advantages of the Zip over LS120.
For examples:
-- The Zip does not take away 1.44FD compatibility. Anyone who wants
to have a 1.44FD can still have it and the Zip in the same computer.
-- Buying both a 1.44FD and a Zip drives still is significantly cheaper than
buying one LS120.
-- The LS120 is 40% slower than the Zip.
-- There is no external LS120 (probably would be too expensive too
compete with Zip external). Portability is a major advantage that PC users
would like to have.
-- There is no migration path (at least not announced) for the LS120.
There will be 100, 200, 400MB zip. The same Zip drive can read 25MB,
100MB, 200MB, and 400MB disks. 25MB and 100MB disks are already
available on the market.
-- Most major PC makers have embraced Zip, none for LS120. (Compag
as one of the original LS120 partners should not be counted as a
converted OEM. IOMG should point this out to the public.)
-- With all above advantages, why buy a single LS120, when the
consumer can buy both a 1.44FD and a Zip?
In fact, to make a point, IOMG probably should offer one free 1.44FD
($10-15/ea.) for each computer sold with a Zip in it. The Zip does not
have to replace the 1.44FD to become a new standard. It can become
a new storage standard and co-exist with the 1.44FD until it becomes
completely obsolete. To this end, IOMG could easily change their tune
and promote the Zip as a new standard, in addition to the 1.44FD, and
take away the only advantage that the LS120 has.
Zip sales in 3Q and 4Q will be very critical. All the skeptics are watching.
If Zip sales explode in 3Q and 4Q with increased capacity, which I believe
will happen, we are home free.
What a ride!
Young |
