In defense of Chemtrak's management... Many of the events of the past
year have been out of management's hands. They have no control over
the pace at which the FDA moves. And consider if they had gotten
timely approval for AWARE! The market has not developed as had been expected. A large company like J&J was much more able to risk spending money to promote an HIV test than was Chemtrak. So, at least be glad they didn't have to throw money away. The rapid test, when
it comes, will probably be a better revenue generator. And just because they have 180 days to respond, doesn't mean they are going to wait that long. Don't forget, once they have approval from the FDA, a milestone payment from Selfcare kicks in.
Whatever the reason the delay for Hp Chek, remember it is just a delay. As someone mentioned recently, Astra Merk is a large organization which moves slowly. How AM operates is also beyond Chemtrak's control.
If anything, the current management should be praised for not just sitting on their duffs waiting for good news. They actively have gone out looking for existing products in need of distribution. That effort has paid off with Colocare and Parent's Alert. There could be other products/deals coming for all we know.
Don't worry about ColoCARE. It will eventually show up on the shelves. If you have been reading the business news you'd know that several of the largest drug store chains have just gone through mergers. Considering the type of logistics involved with a merger, they probably have been slow to take shipment of products which had not already been in their inventory. So again... this was a case of circumstances beyond Chemtrak management's control.
Several of the posts on this thread have unfairly blamed management. Yes, most of us are probably out some money (myself included), but
that's the risk we take when banking on these smaller biotechs. We have been patient and will have to continue to do so. The revenues will come in time...probably less time than you think.
Where will they come from in 1997? Figure a total of 1.5 for 2 mill for Cholestrak. ColoCare should bring in up to 1.5. There will be
an initial bubble as a large amount of product will be shipped to fill
store shelves. And Hp Chek? Conservatively I would guess 1.5 to 2 million for the second half of 1997. Parent's Alert? I don't know. It is a wild card. So maybe Chemtrak will end 1997 with total revenues somewhere around 5-7 million (assuming all 4 products are out). My estimate for 1998 would be anywhere from 6 to 10 million.
When it comes right down at it, it depends on how you look at the news from the last several months. There was much more good news than bad if you ask me. Call me an optimist.
Bill |
