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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16987)	8/28/2001 4:12:14 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (3) of 52237

>> As for the HUGE inflation in 1933-34, it doesn't show up as even a blip on this CPI chart- cpcug.org << that chart is not very illustrative, although you must be blind because i see the end of a 12 year downtrend in inflation culminating in 1932 and the start of a new secular trend higher in 1933. if you can't recognize this that's your problem. the market recognized the end of deflation and that's why bonds sold-off, commodities of all flavors rebounded (not just gold) and stocks had their greatest year of the entire century! try reading books and financial publications describing the 1930's like i have. read the wall street journal from that period. the national industrial conference board's cost of living index was up 9%. wholesale prices were up 17% in 1933. more importantly, fdr was taking clear policy action to boost prices. the dollar fell by a third in 1933. >> If there was ANY inflation in 1933 and 1934 << it even appears on your chart >> it was ABSOLUTELY DWARFED by the deflation that preceded it << the market is a discounting mechanism. it priced in the worst deflationary expectations at the bottom of 1932 and then reversed higher. it's clearly obvious even on the chart you provided. 1932 marked the bottom of a 12 year deflationary spiral and holders of gold, stocks, bonds, etc acted accordingly. obviously their switch into stocks like homestake mining was justified, as 1932 marked the bottom for deflation and inflation resumed it's long-term trend higher. >> Inflation doesn't appear to really assert itself till post-1940. << that's because there was another recession in 1937. but we are not talking about 1937 now are we? we are talking about 1933-1934. to say that 1933 was delfationary is just plain incorrect. >> I think I would come more believing the gold-eagle articles than anything that you have spewed. << that's just fine with me. i'm not going to waste anymore time talking to you, so i guess you're left to rely on gold-eagle's glowing advice. >> You have presented ZERO proof for any of your claims << you have ZERO ability to see anything other than the way you want to see it, so i will cease wasting my time trying to convince you otherwise.

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