gem-x's incredibly accurate Elliott Wave forecasts. Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : gem-x's incredibly accurate Elliott Wave forecasts.

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: gem-x who wrote (1022)	8/28/2001 10:03:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 2290

The selling is irrational, as was the buying was irrational in March of 2000. Gem - I have a serious exception to the "selling is irrational" part. The Naz is ENORMOUSLY overvalued here even at these fallen levels. PEs are totally out of wack. INTC BEAS SEBL etc are no longer growth stocks. PC are a cyclical industry. Companies will upgrade PCs every 4 or 5 years and that will be that. INTC should have a PE that reflects this state of business. It does not. I believe it will before all is said and done. Unfortunatly that will not happen all at once or even this year IMHO. It takes time to work off these excesses so I say the baer market will continue for 3 more years. However, there will be cyclical bull markets within a secular bear market. We could be in for one hell of a ride up if it happens. What you (WE) have to realize is not that this selling was irrational but that the next huge wave up will be irrational. The thinking man will have a hard time buying it, and may be tempted to wrongly short it. Th brokerages WANT DESPERATELY for everyone to believe all is well. What will happen is that the next CYCLICAL round of orders for PC's, routers, software upgrades will come in and the market will over-react (as it always does) on any bit of positive news. Next year some time, there will be a recession. Book it. 99.999% guaranteed. Whenever we stop rising, will be the next great shorting opportiunity cause WE WILL REVIST THESE LOWS AGAIN NEXT YEAR. Personally I think about 2500. I hhave seen calls all the way to 3500 but I really doubt laid off people will be chasing stocks that much. Most of the gains in my Scenario will be between Nov and Feb. Greenspan will "retire" in glory on the market rebound. History will not be so kind and he will go down as having overmanaged as well as grossly missmanaged the last 5 years of the bubble. When I start buying I will hold my nose. FA the market is a SCREAMING sell. It was true in April and it is true now. Technically this market time and time again has proven how irrational it can be. EBAY at a PE of 200 or whatever is totally 100% irrational. LWIN at anything over $5 is totally irrational. INTC at 30 is irrational on a FA basis as is CSCO. Growth simply is not there. In April one had to hold a nose and buy. In Nov or whenever P/C ratio suggests or TICK count suggests, or panic by whatever means sets in, we simply must hold our noses and buy again. The buying on an FA basis will be irrational IMHO but on a TA basis will be warranted. Right now, J6P is the only thing holding up this environment. Housing is starting to crumble. When J6P stops buying the economy will tank. Next cyclical round of business upgrades MAY save the market as I have suggested. NOTHING will be safe in the recession that is coming. One more IMPULSIVE wave up firts. When it stalls, short the hell out of it. M

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next