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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: isopatch who wrote (817)8/29/2001 6:34:44 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
Interesting that the market plunged yesterday in response to a drop in consumer confidence. Consumer confidence still is WAY ABOVE the troughs reached in prior recessions.

From the CONTRARY INVESTOR

"As it should be, market participants are on edge regarding any glimpse into the consumer psyche of the moment given that
the consumer is the support mechanism to the current economy. The consumer confidence number being a possible
precursor to employment trends, retail sales, etc. So what if the consumer confidence number had been an up reading
today? Well, as you can see from the historical chart above that truncates in 1997, the current perception of a "low" reading is
simply relative to the past few years. According to the history of this reading, we are much closer to the highs of the last thirty
years than the lows. An up reading would have been no panacea regarding the future by any means. As you can see in
looking back, at least a 60 reading was recorded in all of the last four recessions in this country. Bar none. Even in the 1970
downturn when consumer confidence started at the 140 type level, only again seen in 2000, the drop was to the mid 70's as
the darker psychological interlude ran its course. And investors are worried about a drop to 114.3? Apparently investors of
today don't quite have a grasp on what worry may become. At least not yet."
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