Don't confuse Mfg with ASSEMBLY or RETAIL or especially SERVICES and SOFTWARE or innovative products. The manufacturing glut on inventory may effect commodity model products, actually lowering the cost of jelly beans that is component parts, which will lower assembly and sale costs of finished goods. Innovative or hot tach products of course do not follow the commodity model at all, they are in short suppky and high demand even at high capacity manufacturing even in an earnings recession. I would put PALM and most pda and handhelds, cellphones, in that category, as I also would put from time to time virus software, also luxury or vice goods. Drugs and other medical innovative products also. Or necessities, OIL and ELECTRICITY but not Telecom or other utility services, STORAGE, but not office space, and so on. Supply and Demand and PRICE to be sure, but only where there are limited or restricted resources such as trained labor not brute labor, thus professional services, escpecially in tech, but not at McDonalds for example. Yes, Greenspan killed off US Manufacturing for now, and the only cure for that is a new Federal Reserve and new Fed Chairman, or alternatively a US Treasury that has the political willpower to do daily battle with the Federal Reserve, and that means not raiding Social Security but insted bringing back 30 year Treasury issues, deferring the short term debt that will occur as Greenspan's 2nd induced earnings recession destroys the tax revenue and projected surplus. That's right my friends, bring back the 30 year Teasury, forget the move to the 20 year "EUROPEANIZATION" of the Bond Market.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
