Hi Mythman, The Yen may have headed up because (a) US$ headed down by shear weariness, W official disinterest, Al rate cut, relative Japan/USA econ cycle, and (b) mild repatriation by banks for mark-to-market.
Also, a tired observation, the real borrowing interest rate in Japan is effectively 6%, with 1-1.25% nominal rate, and 4-5% annualized deflation, and as the Japanese savers have far more money than overseas folks ever dare (?!) to borrow, pillage, burn, and other naughty acts, the Yen stays high relative to its long historic value even after a 12 year meandering to nowheresville.
In the LT Yen should, ought, must, and therefore just may keep going down. The occasional bounce up can still be lethal. I find relative currency values difficult to play, given fundamental value only show through after long lag time, and psychological value can turn on the coin.
I got my lines of credit all lined up in Indonesian, Filipino and Japanese currencies, and my cash is about 45% non-USD stashed in the Alps and hiding in plain sight in the Black Forest, rest still protected by aircraft carriers. My business income from now to February (all in USD) is 25% hedged (OK, speculated) via a Euro call 0.95.
For this thread, 2002, again, ought to be an interesting year, now that Thanks Giving and Christmas in the US is cancelled as far as my Asia based exporting buddies are concerned.
Chugs, Jay
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