First off, nice post. Secondly, don't forget the market is closed on Monday. One less day for "them" to ramp it up for ya.
I was just mulling things over with a trader pal of mine, and just for the sake of conversation, let me throw out one thing we talked about.
One scenario we really hadn't seen anyone talk about was a crash/fast decline right here (and beginning of Sept, too, perhaps) followed by a surprise September rally (and the oft talked about October fall). It makes no sense on a fundamental level, sure. But like Allan had said about buying a big wedge break down with a fear spike. . . well, we could see that happen as early as tomorrow even. Yeah, I know the VIX is low, but the directional move and % move of the vix might be more telling. And the COT report on Friday might give a hint as to whether this is a real breakdown or the start of the end (pre-bounce).
I'll be the first to admit that I won't be buying anything tomorrow unless we get a truly drastic put/call or vix spike. And I sure have no reason to think that this scenario will come to pass. I could see a continued bleed down through early October, frankly, as earnings warning season already has started (AMD, IDTI, and SUNW among the many today alone). And I sure can't see the start of any C up here. But I wonder if there might not be one more attempt to rally this sucker and suck in one last round of money under the "it can't get worse!" pretense? Maybe no one's buying that line anymore?
Guess I'll know in a month or so.
the freep |
