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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (33882)	8/30/2001 3:48:48 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 69835

STLW CC: 15 to 20 design wins at CSCO.Expect to remain a large customers. Fiber Channel up 42 percent Metro down significantly due to new programs. GigE up modestly. 1/3 rev fiber channel, 1/3 metro, 1/3 gigE Percent MCDT as rev. > 10 percent for Q. No comment on specifics. Top 10 customers. No comment. Q rev necessary to break even. Low 20's mil on cash flow and bottom line. DSO's, turns? Turns for Q 2.7. DSO 78 days. AR down 42 percent in Q though. Backlog 17.6 mil. 66 percent subsysten. 34 percent optical components. Any uptick in August after poor July? August stablized with weak July. Not great. All orders small orders and quick turns in August though. Makes it hard to forecast. Any areas where you will see Q-Q growth? Slow across board. No segment stronger than other. Design activities? Still lot of activity in telecom space. No slowdown at all. Everyone of customers focusing on getting next gen products out. Rev functions of macro economic products. Talk about strength of fiber channel? Have a lot of 2.5 gig wins that we did not have in 1.0 gig. Expect storage to return before other segments. Not sure though. Internal VCSEL qualification? Have approval in quality stage. Need reliability approval. Don't expect any rev impact for 6 months. Op Ex up Q-Q. Guidance? Expect manufacturing cost to improve. Cost of sales cost should see some improvement. R&D hiring may accelerate. Op Ex down to flat. Cap Ex down from current Q. 15 mill for balance of year. GaAs offerring any competitive advances? No, on IC level, we are buying GaAs for ammplifiers. Using more SiGe products going forward. On 17.6 mil backlog, how much is deliverable in next few months? About 9 mil of current backlog is for the next Q. 4.5 mil shipped. 5 mil to be shipped rest of Q. Oct rev guidance seems flat to July. Given stable GM, will it be the same kind of loss we saw this Q. Could see lower loss due to lower cost of sales. Head count in R&D? 90.

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