HERE'S MY LAST SUNDAY'S NEWSLETTER TO DA TROOPS...
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED AUGUST 26TH 2001
Good evening everyone,
hope you all had a nice relaxing weekend...it was gorgeous at the shore...i went in the water swimming, dunking and diving around, with ONE eye opened in case i saw JAWS<VBG>...damn sharck scares everywhere, had me jumpy...hahahahaha
Well watcha think huh???..Did we do good or what????....Hope you took this advice and did ok too...There was a lot of side action last week, and i mean not only the FED, but CSCO had "good" things to say, and AMCC also chimed in with news that some things are moving forward with orders...all in all, we showed excellent patience, excellent timing...
When we called the bottom, actually a double bottm at 1155 SPX, i want to remind you all, that on P&F this index has broken down...it broke a triple bottom at 1160, so even though we bounced off that double bottom, do not think we are going straight up here..In fact once an index or stock breaks triple tops or bottoms, THEY ALWAYS CORRECT THEMSELVES...ALWAYS!!!..So we expected that bounce last week...The real question now is how far will it bounce...The SPX is right at the 20 ema on the daily candle chart...with the forty at 1196...1190 is a 3 box reversal back up here on P&F..so both numbers sort of coincide nicely...i think we'll take that out and re test of that whole round number at 1200...1220 is a very nice triple top area of heavy resistance...i'll talk more about this as we move forward here...
When i use the SPX---VIX---SP01U---NQ01U---and the SOX indexs i get a solid picture of where i think we are going, and where expected R's and S's are in the general overview of the markets near term trend...remember we are only swing or daytrading here..we are NOT investing as yet..that good time will happen but later on down the road...not here, and not now...
However...in my studies of Point and Figure charting over the last 7 years..i have noticed a phenomenon known as the triple bottom failure pattern...TBF...I am almost certain that the SPX will in fact, NEGATE that triple bottom breakdown at 1160...This does not mean at some point in the not too distant future that 1160 or more over 1155, will not be broken hard!!!..But if we print 1190 tomarrow..then we have a TBF in the works..which is a BEAR TRAP...yeah i know???..Bear trap??? yup..thats what i said<G>..Heck the bulls have been trapped for 1 1/2 years so far, it's only fair those damn bears get a bit of their own medicine huh???...So we'll watch this index as we always do, and see if we can rally right up to heavy R at 1220..Directly overhead at 1230..is the dreaded BRL Line..the "Bearish Resistance LIne"...Gee Whiz, we just cannot get away from that damn word BEAR<VBG>...
OK let's check we all the index are we watch and love..
DOW---DJIA---WELL THIS INDEX REVERSED UP OFF DEATH'S DOOR AND RALLIED NICELY TAKING OUT NEARBY R, AT 10,400 A DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL..NICE...JUST OVERHEAD IS THAT OLE' BRL LINE AT 10,500 FIRST HEAVY R AREA....BE NICE IF WE COULD TAKE THAT OUT..BUT WE'LL SEE HUH???
NAZ--COMPX---STILL THE "WEAKEST LINK" SO FAR..NEEDS TO PRINT 2000 FOR A TREND REVERSAL BACK UP HERE...LET'S SEE "IF" IT HAS ANY SORT OF LEGS...THERE'S OVERHEAD R ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART AT THE 40 EMA RIGHT NEAR 2000...
NDX---LOOKS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE NAZ...1650 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP HERE...RIGHT AT THE 40 EMA DAILY TOO...
SOX----THIS INDEX HELD THAT TRIPLE BOTTOM I TALKED ABOUT AT 540 FOR THE THIRD TIME...THERE ARE BUYERS THERE FOR NOW...600 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..640 THAT MAJOR DOUBLE TOP AREA...WE MAY LOOK TO SHORT THE SEMIS THERE AT 640, IF IT GETS THERE, AND IF IT DOESN'T BREAKOUT THERE...ALL MY SEMIS ARE IN POSITIVE TERRITORY AND PROFITABLE...I WANT TO GET TAKEN OUT HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...USING TRAILING STOPS GAINS..I AM NOT WILLING TO "SELL" BEFORE THE FACT...
BTK---WE CALLED THAT BREAKOUT RIGHT ON THE EXACT DAY..BOTH THE BTK & THE BBH GAVE BUY SIGNALS LAST WEEK...AND ALL OF OUR BIO TECHS RALLIED UP NICELY SO FAR...WE ARE RIGHT AT SOME R HERE AT 550..560 WOULD BE A NICE BREAKOUT LONG THERE...INTERESTING TO WATCH HERE...I WOULD BE EVEN MORE BULLISH IF BOTH THE SEMIS AND BIOS COULD RALLY TOGETHER RIGHT HERE..
VIX---SO FAR WE HAVE CALLED THIS INDEX RIGHT ON THE MONEY...I FEEL IT WILL "NOW" BREAK THIS RECENT TRADING RANGE TO THE DOWNSIDE, WHICH IS BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS ON THE UPSIDE...THERE'S STILL GOOD SUPPORT AT 22 & 21...BUT I HAVE AN ULTIMATE DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 18/17 AREA...IT COULD HAPPEN VERY SOON...THIS WOULD BE A "MAJOR" ALERT TO "EXIT ALL LONGS".....IF WE GET THERE...IT TOUCHED 27 3/4 LAST WEEK..AMAZING...29 IS REAL TROUBLE FOR THE LONGS..BUT WE ARE MOVING THE OTHER WAY RIGHT HERE...
QQQ----40 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP HERE OF AN UGLY CHART...THE ULTIMATE TARGET IS 33...YEP AND MAYBE LOWER TOO..RIGHT NOW WE'RE ON A BOUNCE...LET IT RUN...
SMH---REVERSED BACK UP ALONG WITH THE SOX, NICELY...I AM LONG THIS INDEX AT 42 1/2..I ALREADY MOVED MY STOP UP TO 45..TO CAPTURE THOSE NICE GAINS...AS I DID ON ALL MY STOCKS THAT I AM LONG HERE...WITH ANY LUCK THIS INDEX COULD RUN UP TO 49/50..IT HAS SOME R RIGHT AT 46...
OK LET'S LOOK AT OUR STOCKS WE LOVE TO TRADE....
KLAC---I OWN IT AT 46 1/4...MY STOP IS AT 49 3/4...NOT GOING TO LOSE MUCH MONEY HERE BUT TRYING TO GIVE IT SOME AIR TOO...IT HAS SOME R AT 52 LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK....HERE'S THE DAYTRADING TRIGGERS FOR TOMARROW...52 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...50 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER...IT HAS HEAVY S(SUPPORT) AT THE 200 EMA DAILY AT 48 3/4...
CY----CLOSED GOOD ON FRIDAY....NEEDS TO PRINT 26 FOR A TREND CHANGE...24 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..26 YOU WOULD HOLD IT LONGER TERM WITH STOPS...22 3/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER..
TQNT---GOT STOPPED OUT TWICE BUT RE BOUGHT IT FOR THE THIRD TIME AT 21 1/4 STOP IS NOW AT 22 1/4 TO LOCK THAT POINT...LOOKING FOR A CONTIUATION UP HERE TOWARD 25 THE DOUBLE TOP...BUY TRIGGER IS 24 1/2...SS TRIGGER IS MY STOP AT 22 1/4....MOVES NICELY FOR 1-2 POINTS ALMOST EVERYDAY???
MCHP---...LONG AT 32 1/2...STOP 33 1/2 ..IT HAS HEAVY R AT THE BRL LINE AT 35...SO IT MUST TRUST UP AND OUT OF THAT LINE...IF NOT IT WILL TURN OUT TO BE A GOOD SHORT....35 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER...MY STOP AT 33 1/2 T IS THE SHORT SALE(SS)...
AMAT---I AM HEAVILY LONG THIS STOCK LIKE KLAC & NVLS ..THE BIG BOYS RUN UP THE MOST...I AM LONG AT 43 1/2...STOP NOW AT 45 1/2 TO LOCK IN THE PROFITS...BUY TRIGGER AT 47 1/2...RESISTANCE AT 48/49...SS SALE TRIGGER AT MY STOP AT 45 1/2...
ELNT---GOSH WHAT A THINLY TRADED STOCK, BUT OH BOY IT'S NICE...I CATCH ELNT AT 36 1/4 LAST WEEK..AND AM STILL HOLDING IT LONG...BUY TRIGGER HERE IS 40 3/4...41 IS THE TOP HERE..42 IS BLUE SKY BREAKOUT.."IT SHOULD ONLY HAPPEN"<VBG>...DO NOT THINK SO THOUGH...HAHAHAHAHAH..42 IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH NUT TO CRACK...38 1/2 THE SS TRIGGER AND MY STOP...
DELL---NOT IN THIS STOCK FOLKS...SO FAR...WATCHING...DELL HELD SOME SUPPORT HERE AT 22...24 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...25 A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...MIGHT GET BACK TO 25/26...MARKET WILLING...BUT I'LL PASS FOR NOW...SS IS AT 22...
QCOM---I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 62 3/4....ON FRIDAY IT FINALLY BROKE THE NEAR TERM BRL LINE AT 66 AND GAVE A BUY SIGNAL THERE TOO...CLOSED VERY VERY STRONG LATE IN THE DAY...AND, I TOLD EVERYONE WHO'D LISTEN TO "HOLD IT"...BUY TRIGGER HERE IS AT 67 1/4...68 IS "THE" DOUBLE TOP..69 IS GOOD BYE CITY...64 3/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER AND MY STOP...
EBAY---NOT IN THIS STOCK NOW...WE COULD HAVE SHORTED IT NICELY...BUT...WAS DOING OTHER THINGS<G>...IT HAS GIVEN 4 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS..AND WHILE I SAID WE COULD "PLAY IT" FOR A BOUNCE..IT'S SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE STOCK FOR NOW...NEVER TRIGGERED LONG LAST WEEK...SO THE BUY TRIGGER NOW IS 60 1/4...MIGHT GET TO 62/63..WITH HEAVY R THERE...SET ALERTS TO SHORT IT THERE...57 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER..
NVDA---DAMN STOCK STOPPED ME OUT TWICE..I DID NOT RE ENTER IT, AND REALLY SHOULD HAVE...BOUGHT SOMETHING ELSE...IT ACTUALLY HIT MY BREAKOUT TARGET AT 86...GOSH...OH WELL...WIN SOME LOSE SOME..HOPE OTHERS TOOK THAT TRADE...EVEN THO THE LAST WEEK TRIGGER WAS 85 1/4....YOUR RIGHT AT BREAKEVEN HERE...AND YOU HAD BETTER PLACED A HARD STOP AT THAT NUMBER...CAN ALWAYS RE ENTER...OR MAYBE YOU SCALPED IT FOR 1- --1 1/2 POINTS????..ANYWAY...86 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..AND IT MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAY HIGHS WITH VOLUME...REMEMBER IT HAS BROKEN OUT HERE ON P&F...SS TRIGGER AT 84...CHART LOOKS NICE HERE...
CREE---LOOKS OK HERE...24 1/4 A SOLID BUY TRIGGER LONG...22 THE SS SALE SET UP..
JBL---LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK..."ONLY FOR THE AGGRESSIVE TRADERS"...WELL DAMN IF IT DIDN;T HOLD THAT HEAVY SUPPORT AREA AT 23...THE TRIPLE BOTTOM...I HAD THAT BUY TRIGGER AT 23 3/.4..IT RAN UP OVER 25!!!! 26 IS A REVERSE IN TREND UP...25 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...THIS STOCK COULD RUN UP HERE TO 27/28ISH..MARKET WILLING...23 1/2 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER WITH ANY PRINT OF 22 HOLD ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO HELL....
MU---I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 35 1/4...IT NEVER BROKE DOWN SORTA LIKE JBL AND THE SOX TOO<G>...I HAVE MY STOP AT 36 1/4..THINKING WE MIGHT CATCH A NICE RUN BACK UP TO 40/41 ISH OR SO...TRYING TO GIVE THIS ONE SOME ROOM..SO I'M LEAVING THE STOP THERE FOR A DAY OR SO...39 IS STILL THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP HERE...I AM MAKING 3 + FULL POINTS SO FAR..BUT WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS MON/TUES...39 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...37 1/2 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER...THIS IS A CONSTANT GAME OF CAT AND MOUSE AS WE MOVE THRU THIS BATTLE LONG AND SHORT ON ALL STOCKS WE TRADE...
SEPR---I GAVE THIS HEALTHCARE STOCK TO YOU LAST WEEK..AT THE "BRINK"..IT HELD AND REVERSED UP HERE NICELY...SOLID BUY TRIGGER FOLKS AT 39 1/2...THIS STOCK BROKE THRU THE 20 & 40 EMA DAILY LAST WEEK..NICE AS CAN BE...RISK REWARD...THATS THE TICKET..EASY STOP IF IT BROKE DOWN...43 3/4 THE "NEW" BUY TRIGGER...41 THE SS...
CLS---DCB HERE..REVERSED UP OFF THAT SELL SIGNAL...42 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...40 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER..
NSM---I AM LONG NSM AT 31 1/2 STOP 32 1/2....GOOD LOOKING CUP WITH HANDLE CANDLESTICK CHART...HERE'S THE PERFECT BUY TRIGGER LONG...34 3/4....35 IS A BIG BREAKOUT ON THE P&F CHART TOO...MY STOP IS THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER NOW..
RFMD---I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 24 1/2...SENT AN E-MAIL OUT ABOUT IT LAST WEEK...STOP AND SHORT SALE TRIGGER IS AT 25 1/2.....27 1/2 A SOLID BUY TRIGGER LONG....
NVLS---GOT STOPPED INTO NVLS AT 46 1/4...NOW HAVE A STOP AT 48 3/4....NEW BUY TRIGGER LONG AT 51 1/4...SHORT SALE TRIGGER AT MY STOP 48 3/4...
SMH---SEVERAL PEOPLE INCLUDING MYSELF BOUGHT THE SMH AT 42 1/2..MY STOP IS AT 45...TO LOCK IN GAINS...THERE'S SOME R HERE AT 46ISH..SO 47 1/2 IS THE BUY TRIGGER...COULD GET TO 49/50....SHORT SALE IS MY STOP AT 45...
MYGN---EXPLODED OFF A DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL AT 42....WE HAD A BUY TRIGGER LAST WEEK AT 39 1/2...I HOPE YOU ALL GOT LONG ....THE BIO TECH BULLISH PERCENT JUST TURNED UP INTO BULL CONFIRMED STAUS ALONG WITH THE BBH, AND BTK..HEY I DON'T NEED A 2x4 TO HIT ME OVER THE HEAD HERE FOLKS...WE NEED TO OWN SOME BIOS TECHS... ALL THINGS RIGHT ARE FALLING INTO PLACE..ALL..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!....46 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...MUST TAKE OUT 48 THOUGH...44 1/4 THE SHORT SALE..
PDLI---GEE WHIZ..THIS STOCK JUST EXPLODED TOO....I HAD A DISTANT BUY TRIGGER LAST WEEK AT 51..YEAH THATS RIGHT 51..IT HIT 59?????..WHERE WAS I, LAYING IN THE DAMN WEEDS???..AND GUESS WHAT I SAID??? WAIT FOR IT???...HOLY COW...NO WONDER<VBG>...60 1/4 IS THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...I'D BE A BIT CAUTIOUS HERE IT'S RUN UP HARD...TAKE THAT TRIGGER BUT TRY TO GET TO BREAKEVEN QUICKLY....SHORT SALE TRIGGER HERE IS AT 58 1/4....
HGSI---HELD A NICE DOUBLE BOTTOM NEAR THE LOWS LAST WEEK...3 HARD GREEN STICKS UP TOO..BUYERS WHERE THERE ALL RIGHT...49 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER..LOOKS LIKE PDLI..SOME R HERE...47 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER...
IDPH---JUST THE SAME THING HERE..EXPLODED AND IT'S STILL RUNNING...BROKE A TRIPLE TOP..SO IT COULD PULL BACK HERE...61 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER TIGHT STOP THO...59 1/2 THE SS....IT MAY PULLBACK TOWARD 57 OR SO..TO BEGIN ANOTHER SET UP LONG...
HD----WELL SOME ONE IN BARRONS KNOCKED THIS STOCK SO BE CAREFUL HERE...IT NEVER TRIGGERED A LONG LAST WEEK..IT MUST BREAK 51...THATS THE TRIGGER LONG NOW...SAME SS TRIGGER 48 1/2...
WELL THATS IT FOR NOW FOLKS IT'S LATE...
I AM GETTING SOME RENEWALS NOW VIA PAYPAL RECURRING BILLING..REMEMBER TO CHECK TO SEE IF YOU STILL WANT THIS LETTER..IF NOT LET PAYPAL KNOW PLEASE...
SEE YOU ALL TOMARROW..
WARM REGARDS
JERRY |
