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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: stan_hughes who wrote (3899)8/30/2001 8:18:55 AM
From: Second_Titan  Read Replies (1) of 206087
 
Stan:

People's willingness to lower the thermostat a little and save a little electricity might make an impact if they thought there was a crisis. Most people are not affected by the stock market and employment is still very high by historical comparison. Electric demand monthly average year over year is averaging 2.5% higher than last year with people saving and manufacturing output way down. People will hear NG prices have crashed and see no reason to conserve. Part of this increase in residential demand must be all the huge new home being built every day.

The NG bubble will be burned by power plants beyond a doubt. The EIA data is indisputable that a major shift from NG to primarily #2 oil occurred. Even if OPEC collapsed today and flooded the markets #2 oil would not be competitive with NG at <$3.50.

I am assuming that since the GDP data reveals a very significant drop in inventory over the last 3 quarters that manufacturing will pick up and the vast pumping being done by Greenspan will at least improve GDP each quarter going forward.

With a normal Winter and OPEC effectively maintaining quotas withn 700 kbpd I dont expect a collapse. In fact I bet we will bust $30 WTI this Winter if it is normal in the northern Hemisphere.
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