Tiger, I disagree.
First, I don't think the notion that there was a market bubble in technology investing necessarily requires one to dismiss the impact of technology on the economy over the last decade or the next. Those who do dismiss it, those who think the bubble invalidates the claimed contributions to productivity and growth are making a big mistake. There was another big technology bubble this century. The new technologies were manufacturing efficiencies developed in the auto industry and a rapidly growing medium called radio. Does the 1929 crash invalidate the advances in manufacturing and communications that preceded that bubble? Does the recognition of those advances require one to deny the bubble?
Second, the market and the economy were not derailed by "a return to old economy transportation and energy issues." They were derailed by the sudden realization that old economic rules do, in fact, still apply. The so called "new economy" is subject to the same tendencies toward over-investment, over-capacity and over-production that have contributed to economic cycles for many decades, if not centuries.
Lastly, I seriously doubt that this downturn is going to quash for very long the entrepreneurial drive to innovate, the process of creative destruction, or the capitalistic drive for wealth that have built this economy. Everyone will just have to work a little harder on the first two and be more careful with their limited resources in order to achieve the third.
Regards,
Bob |
