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Non-Tech : Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. (KKD)
KKD 21.000.0%Aug 4 5:00 PM EST
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To: Jon Koplik who wrote (829)8/30/2001 10:22:24 AM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 1001
 
I all honesty, by making an error. I didn't multiply by four. Ooops. That post was tossed off too quickly without any editing or sufficent fact checking. Thanks for pointing out the error.

But on the other hand I have strong doubts about 1200% growth anytime soon. But if it does and following the rest of the assumptions I made its market cap when fully valued after all of this hypothetical future growth would be $4bil. If you are certain that profits are going to grow 1200% in the next say 5 years then investing in KKD would make sense.

But while I did make a mistake even after correcting for this mistake I think that KKD is overvalued just not quite as overvalued as I thought. I used a lot of generous assumptions to get that future $4bil market cap. To get the 1200% growth I relied on someones post on this thread saying that it could grow (400% and then another 100%) which would make 800% growth. Krispy Kreme is growing very fast right now but so where many of the tech high flyers before the NASDAQ crash. The odds that it can continue growing like this seem low to me. It could have solid growth in the future but hypergrowth normally doesn't continue for a long time, and as solid of company as Krispy Kreme is I don't see it as a change the world type of company. Its potential is good but limited it won't be a future megacap stock and it could take awile to reach this potential.

Tim
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