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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (46009)8/30/2001 2:18:17 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh  Read Replies (5) of 54805
 
Calling this a disaster is a huge stretch in my opinion.

I was thinking this recently in response to some hand-wringing verbiage from our Prez. To be sure, the market has played some nasty surprises on us ... but then it only really looks nasty when you look back to the peak. If you look past the peak to the longer turn trend, this is really not much more than a dip in the road, we are just feeling it that much more because of the unjustified bounce which preceded it.

Outside the market, yes, there has been some cutback and retrenchment, but a great many of the "bad" announcements have been "we didn't grow as much as we had been" flavor, combined with a bit of understandable overrun from believing that things were going to keep growing as they had -- which would itself have been unreasonable, but who wanted to be caught unprepared to go with the growth. Sure, the .coms have suffered, but think about it a little ... did you really expect many of them to succeed considering their lack of a viable plan for making money? Unemployment is still low by historical norms, despite all the ballyhoo about layoffs. It seems to me that the biggest real problem in the business and consumer economy at this point is more a question of confidence than anything else. If everyone would just get back in the mood, we would get back to growing.
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