From: donald sew Thursday, Aug 30, 2001 4:44 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 17378
AUG 30 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - CLASS 2 BUY, IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs
SPX - CLASS 2 BUY, IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs
OEX - CLASS 2 BUY, IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs
NAZ - OVERSOLD/BORDERLINE CLASS 2 BUY, NEW LOWER LOW
NDX - OVERSOLD/BORDERLINE CLASS 2 BUY, NEW LOWER LOW
SOX - LOWER MIDRANGE, IMPERFECT 3-BLACK CROWs
RUT - OVERSOLD REGION, NEW LOWER LOW
MSFT - OVERSOLD REGION, NEW LOWER LOW
VIX - OVERBOUGHT(inverse to market), NEW HIGHER HIGH
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = NEGATIVE 148
5 DAY TRIN - 7.66
If the market continues down, I would get CLASS 1 BUY SIGNALs for most of the major indicies tomorrow, with the BUY-IN until MON's LOWs. It may take the NAZ/NDX an extra day to get the CLASS 1.
Lots of NEGATIVES developed today:
1) The NAZ/NDX established LOWER LOWs, so all of the major indices have set LOWER LOWs
2) MSFT established a LOWER LOW. I consider than as an important negative development since MSFT is the largest of the NAZ/NDX stocks, making up about/over 10% of the NAZ/NDX. Quite a few of the bigger NAZ/HiTECH stocks have been setting NEW LOWs while MSFT was holding up relatively well and one of the few areas of relative strength; unfortunately with the LOWER LOW its a hint that MSFT could head lower - that ain't good for the NAZ/NDX
3) The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs continue to get worse. As mentioned in the past, the DOWNSIDE BREAK in the RISING WEDGE in the NAZ HI-LOs could be a significant hint of negativity in the NAZ/NDX, which has been the case.
4) CAW-CAW-CAW!!!! 3-BLACK CROWs all over the place. As mentioned by some, the FINANCIAL indices got the 3-CROWs yesterday. And we get the IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs in the DOW/SPX/OEX, and possibly in the SOX also(imperfect 3-BLACK CROWs). Reposting an earlier post on SI about the CROWS: >>>> For those who are not familiar with the "3-BLACK CROWS" pattern, it is a very reliable and one of the most negative candlestic patterns. After a 3-CROWs the index either continues straight down or could bounce. A bounce that follows immediately after the 3rd day of the 3-CROWs should be small and not exceed 1/2 of the total length of the 3-CROWs. Thereafter, selling should resume and commonly intensifies forming lower lows. What makes a 3-CROWs more negative than other candlestic patterns is that the negative effects could linger for some time, while most candlestic patterns are for the short/immediate term. Also, there are 2 types of "3 BLACK CROWS", the normal 3-BLACK CROWS and the "IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs". The IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWS" are more negative....<<<<
Here's the one positive I could come up with. On my WEEKLY charts, the DOW/SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX are all about 1 week away from getting a CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL on a WEEKLY BASIS. WEEKLY CLASS 1 BUY SIGNALs are significant in that they are highly reliable in producing some sort of a rally, even if its only a small one, and could also identify a MID-TERM/IMPORTANT BOTTOM. Im not yet going to say that the forthcoming WEEKLY CLASS 1 BUY will definitely identify a MID-TERM/IMPORTANT BOTTOM, but the possibiity is there. |
