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Pastimes : Crazy Fools Chasing Crazy CyberNews
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To: ms.smartest.person who started this subject8/30/2001 9:01:56 PM
From: ms.smartest.person   of 5140
 
The Sun Sets on a Shaky Argument
By James J. Cramer

08/30/2001 11:29 AM EDT
URL: thestreet.com


The pinion the tech bottom-callers rely on most is that we haven't taken out the lows we established in April. That was the reinforced concrete pillar that Ned Riley rested on during his "Squawk Box" appearance earlier in the week, the one where he said that Sun Micro (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - commentary) has had number cut after number cut and it hasn't gone down.

Now what say you, Neddy?

The ironic and completely false part of this pillar is that Sun has gone down every single time that numbers have been cut. Every time! Numbers rule. And they aren't calling the bottom.

You just can't tell as much any more. During the heyday when things got wild, we used to divide stocks by nine -- the Rule of Nine, my wife called it -- so we could make more sense of thing. So when CommerceOne was at $500 and it went up 40 points, we would say that was really only a five-point move in pre-turn-of-the century rules.

Can you imagine what would happen if you did the inverse to Sun? That would mean that $180 just went to $108. Is that the same price?

Nope.

When the bottom-callers are finally done calling the bottom and instead just admit, "Look, I have sold my Cisco and Sun and EMC because I have given up," then you will have a bottom.

Right now they are still defending.

No bottom gets formed when people who are wrong defend their positions.
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