Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (54462)	8/31/2001 3:54:17 AM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Insider trading is light now so indicator is not very valid, however the last time there was heavy insider volume (in June), there was heavy selling. I suspect insider trading will pick up in Sept and October - the question is which way? Re. gurus - I'm more inclined to believe Warren Buffett than Marty Zweig - Buffett thinks we are in for many years of underperformance after the hot 90's - history supports this observation. I think there will be opportunities along the way for those who still have cash left - the key will be cherry picking the opportunities. Re. market valuation - S&P historic p/e is 14.5, which is about twice historic eps growth rate. After the recession I think eps will grow at 7 - 8% as follows: 2 to 3% GDP growth + 3% inflation + 2% productivity growth Sept and October should be very interesting.

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