Ish, pretty much my take. I had been waiting for the .com bubble to burst, and I knew high tech would catch fallout, as well. What I didn't anticipate, until it started happening, was the huge sell off of good stocks to cover margins, but that was apparent by the end of last year, especially heading into the holidays. Greenspan jamming the brakes did not help, although we were going to have to ride out most of this anyway. Japan and Europe were old news, though the persistence may have started spooking people as we started to hit the skids.
In the end, as you say, people will start buying seriously again, in a few months, maybe sooner. Everyone is expecting a bottom, and there is an anticipation of a turnaround early next year, which means that people will try to position themselves while prices are low, and bid things up. The big problem is caution as we approach price levels nearer to those last summer. We may stagnate for awhile, as people run out of bargains, and see what happens. My guess is that people are so itchy for the Next Big Thing, and want to recover their loses so badly, that as soon as they feel confident of a decent recovery, we will start chugging along again, although more modestly. |
