Tom, good comments on "truth in government" -g-
and we have seen few extremes in the TICK, and the VXN, VIX. that would indicate a bottom, similar to the
late march - April 4th lows.
Dick Arms did note that the TRIN closed above 2.00 on wed and thursday. According to him the last time
that happened was right after the crash of 1987 and back on Aug 4 and 5 of 1982.
Some of the TRIN's Moving Averages such as 21 day, 30 and 55 are showing pretty elevated readings, that
are pointing to a possible bottoming area, but the sentiment, character of the selling, volume, etc, are not
uniformly ringing bells yet.
It seems that depending on how we reach the next low (if we are to have one in Sept or Oct) could either be fast
and violent and occur earlier, or more dull and grinding and stretch out until the end of Oct.
And if we really want to do some Advocacy work on behalf of the DEVIL....... last's year's autumn bottom just did
not show up, until what was it Jan..... or April -g-
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EDIT: someone asked me about Dick Arm's call for a rally due to 2 days where the TRIN closes above 2.00,
here is what I wrote:
my ESIGNAL 1 minute trin showed us ending around 1.90 on Wed for
a start. In fact, on a 1 minute bar chart, I don't have a single reading over 2.00 on Wed.
I have a bunch over 2.00 after 11:30 yesterday, but I'm questioning if it's a valid signal according to his parameters
or if he's just excited for something to happen. I did have TRIN readings between 1.85 and 1.65 during the last
hour on wed, so there was some selling no doubt.
Also the range of the TRIN has expanded over the past few years as was noted on this thread. We do have
more stocks and greater volume and hence the ability to get notional higher and lower readings more readily.
It could be we see a pretty sharp rally during some part of next week that "feels" like the bottom, but will be
one additional fake out leading us to a double bottom occurring in another 3 to 5 weeks???
Quote.com is also not showing the TRIN above 2.00 during the last hour on Wed. does anyone else have
anything showing higher numbers?
John |
