John,
I watch the daily Trin, and it did get pretty high (5-6), but didn't stay there for long and settled in the 1.6-2.6 area for most of the day. Still a nice reading, but I agree with you on the "character" of this decline and that it is not ringing the "all's clear" signal. Volume has lacked conviction as well, up until the 1.5 Billion share day yesterday. I am watching for more large volume days and would like to see it get above 2 Billion. We need panic! <bg>
Dick Arms did come out at the end of March with an announcement that, according to the Trin going back several years, registered a buy signal. He was right for a few weeks, but aside from a nice trade, we topped out around 2300 in May and its been whiplash ever since with the market trending lower. As a result of the months long distribution process, I am looking for that final capitulation stage, where the readings on all the indicators hit the "red zone", volume spikes and the spreads widen significantly, like in October '98. I think it will happen in the next 2-8 weeks. It may be a slow grind, which will be harder to time, but I'd prefer the quick and the bloody. <g>
Tom |
