Kodiak, I wonder if there is much of a fundamental difference in expectations between your point of view and that of JQP, Warp, and myself. None of us are talking about whether the market will bottom and turn up mid term, we all expect that, the only questions we have are when to enter. You expect a near term big blowoff based upon, I believe, fundamental analysis AND technichal analysis. If I understand you correctly, you are looking at things like tax loss selling, earnings in tech and other factors as well as the vix. I see that possibility but think that near term it will turn up. If we are all right about the view that the market will turn up either now or after the next drop, JQP's strategy may not be the optimal one, but it is one that will pay off within weeks, months or longer.
I've been in some of the situations you describe and I always thought that was the smell of old jock straps or unwashed shirts. Now that I think about it, however, you may be right. I think the fear of losing and the anticipation of gaining might smell much the same. gg. Ed |
