Sharck Soup Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: American Spirit who wrote (33929)	9/1/2001 4:15:53 AM
From: stevenallen	Read Replies (1) of 37746

True, no one knows exactly what the market will do next. But we can make educated guesses - why else would we trade if we didn't think we had better than a 50-50 chance of success? The bet I'm taking is that historical valuations really do matter and that reversion to the mean will win out in the end. It has nothing to do with wanting to believe that everyone who is long is wrong. It's just a question of timing - as soon as PEs come back down to where 100 years of history say they belong I'll happily go bullish again - perhaps then we'll see things eye to eye and be able to share strategies in a more satisfying context. I wish you well and really hope you make out OK no matter what side of the trading fence you're on.

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