Since the stock is retesting the high and it may break out above, I thought about the future prospects with all these new properties coming out and what it might mean for KDE. Below is a copy of a long time KDE supporter from that other board. If he is correct then KDE is selling for under 10 times 2002 earnings and still undervalued.
I have re-formated the message
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Totally useless message by: the_donnbonn 07/26/01 07:42 pm Msg: 232884 of 238959
Interesting that we are starting to get earnings predictions for 2002. One poster today says $5 is doable while a couple others say $5 is impossible. Truth is that either could be right.
Even when KDE's earnings were based almost entirely on one property, and we pretty much knew what that property was doing, it was still difficult to predict earnings. 2002 earnings will be based primarily on Pokemon, Monster Jam, Cubix, Yu-Gi-Oh, Tama, Perfect Dark, UltraMan & Cabbage Patch. Of these 9 properties, 7 haven't even been launched, so attempting to predict earnings based on unlaunched properties is the absolute height of speculation. With that in mind here is my estimate and reasons.
Pokemon: .93 per share.
We have been told that Pokemon sales in Japan leveled off at 50% of peak year. I think it will be less here. Last year was peak year and Pokemon accounted for $2.80 per share. I am using 1/3 of peak year to reach this estimate
Monster Jam: .15 per share. This is based on the property doing $100M in retail business. With 5 new Mattel trucks coming out this fall, the McDonalds promo and the video game, this is probably a fairly conservative estimate.
Cubix: .80 per share. Through exhaustive analysis (laughing) I have come up with an estimate that for each $100M in retail sales, KDE will earn .16 per share, and I am hoping for $500M in retail sales. Probably an optimistic estimate, but you never know.
Yu-Gi-Oh: .45 per share. Basis is $1B in retail sales, but since we really don't know if KDE makes anything at all on the cards & video games, I am basing my estimate on $600M in KDE commissionable sales.
Tama: .15 per share. This is strictly a guess. I really have no idea. It could be twice that or half that.
Perfect Dark, UltraMan, Cabbage Patch, Nintendo Classic and any other miscellaneous properties now known or that come aboard: .40. Again, strictly a guess.
Interest: .18 per share. Based on average balance of $150M @ 4%.
So, there you have it. My totally useless estimate comes out to $3.06 per share for 2002. The exciting thing is that in KDE's business it is really in the 2nd year of a properties existence that the big numbers come. Pokemon did 3 times the business in it's 2nd year than it did in its first. So if those 7 properties experiencing their first year in 2002 are successful, 2003 could really be a monster year earnings wise. |
