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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 87.56-4.9%4:00 PM EST
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To: baystock who wrote (75761)9/1/2001 7:01:41 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 116752
 
<I would think that when Wall Street and the public capitulates, that would signal the end of the bear market in equities>

You are thinking in terms of a Intermediate Downtrend within a Secular Bull Market. A strong bounce after capitulation, Yes. A sustainable rally, No. Not in a Secular Bear Market.

Let's be honest here: The vast majority of Americans have lost a fortune over the past 18 months. Liquidity is still a major problem in spite of Greenspan easing 300 basis points. The Housing sector has been strong because the vast majority of Baby Boomers have cashed out of their equity holdings, preparing for a plush retirement. The Housing Boom is now about to go bust. The U.S.A is still very much a divided nation after the last controversial Presidential Election. There is no more surplus. The Bush Administration is now digging into Social Security. I know many Americans who helped fund the secular bull market from August 1982 through March 2000, who will not buy a single equity partly as a result of the last Presidential Election. They have no need to buy stocks any longer.

It's all about profit growth and corporate earnings.

I envision September as Armagedon for the Dow, S@P and NAZ. From the ashes and darkness of the Night, the POG will rise.

Only by being long certain select gold stocks will an investor/trader be able to beat the Polar Bear unless they are a savvy shortseller.
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