Hi Brian,
I've taken advantage of Hay's 30 day free advisory offer (thanks to Mike).
I'm sure glad that the "now purified" ARMS index indicates oversold finally.gggg
I think we're just around the corner from some very positive economic statistics.
Jan and I drove out to a huge Mill's Mall- there are several around the country -perhaps you are familiar with them.They feature a huge Bass pro outdoor store.These stores are the "Mother of all outdoor stores - fishing, camping, boating,backpacking,bows,rods,reels,rifles,knives-it all.
I needed to buy a rifle transport case (for checking in at the airlines).
These are huge multi-acre malls.The entire mall was packed - it was hard to find a parking spot. I had tried to call on the phone and a representative said they "were packed since the doors were opened".
It would appear that the rebates are being spent in full force now.I was ranting at the news media misrepresenting the "let down" that the rebates weren't working in the July retail sales numbers ( only up .1 % ).
GIVE ME A BREAK !!!
The rebates went out to the first 10 % of the people on July 23 rd.Assuming 2 days mail time 10% of the people started receiving their checks spaced out over 5 days from the 25th thru the 29th.Deposit them in the bank and go spend with 2 days left in the month.It isn't really a surprise that they didn't show up in July.
Then the Democrats cook up some numbers that say the surplus is gone - we can't rob the SS lock box.That's another way of saying to tax payers we want your money back.JMHO
They need to maximize this philosophy quickly as the next reports out will show a vibrant retail environment - with very close to full employment.95% of a growing worker pool- working - interest rates at historical lows,GDP being squeezed down to .2 for the last quarter and a retail spending turnaround already happening - but not yet recorded by the statistics.As a member of NADA,I receive a monthly economic outlook report.They have steadfastly held that this is not a recession and rather an inventory sell down from bloated levels created in the frothy buildout of 2000 - I agree. They predict 1 % in Q 3 and 3% in Q 4. They ahve been very credible over the years.
This is an oversold market on the edge of a pschological reversal - a reversal from pessimistic to optimistic.
As we drove around 1/4 of Houston's perimeter (a drive I seldom make) it was astounding to the degree of commercial developments going up. The fruits of historically low interest rates are working. These low rates are the answer to the continued low unemployment for both commercial and residential construction.
One thing for sure - Retail inventories will decline quickly.To the degree that IC's permeate more and more retail goods,inventory levels of unsold chips will finally get purged.The dropping of inventories will once again bring up production rates (which will be watched and scrutinized much more closely no doubt).An increase in production rates will bring out at least a hopefull viewpoint and that beats this "doubter's blues" we've endured for almost 12-15 months.
It is always darkest - just before dawn. My watch shows its 5:30.Darn dark too by the way.gggg
I just happen to be quite confident that the next thing to happen will be the sun coming up - not the sky falling.
We are at the point were an investor must "know what he knows". It requires confidence,a contrarian view that rises above the chicken littles,(who are now late converts to the dark side), or of course the perma bears: who finally got it right (and since they've been right now for a while are getting a little more boystrous about it).One must stand on the abyss with confidence - knowing that your feet are firmly on the ground and then fight off fear when the winds gust from the backside.
These value prices will be rewarding us over the long term - in fact we'll be asking ourselves "why didn't we bet the farm" - it was obviously cheap.
Congrats on your great buy on JDSU - it's only twice as high as what Dipy will pay.gggg
We're gettin close for sure.hehehehe
So you've shot your cash wod too ? Me too. If this bottom goes on another 30 days I'm taking my paycheck and buying some more JDSU. I don't think it will however - one thing for sure - as Bill Hueb says - IATL: It Always Takes Longer.
Thanks for the post - I'm flying up to Alaska to go halibut fishing in the Prince William Sound Area for 11 days. I've got the cash reserves on standby to eliminate all margin if needed and ready to do some beyond reserves margin on : Amat,Intc,Nvls,Dell if the blood gets knee deep in the streets.
Meanwhile as I do the manly thing to provide for my family -(my wife doesn't buy it either)try to keep this thing a float.I'll pay you back by doing like wise when you go to Maccu Piccu.gggggg
Bob |
