<<Well, on the balance of probabilities, it all looks like FNM puts to me"...
Now, I may be termed a late developer, slow thinker, who cares. I can just repeat what climaxing Meg Ryan screamed at Billy Crystal:"Oh meGads, yes, YESSS>>
ROTFL! Yes, tough decisions with put sales...I've been parceling 'em out a little at a time. Everyting left is long-since free. Market's oversold, crashes always occur from oversold levels, etc. I'm just covering and put selling bit by bit.
FNM's a special case. Probably worth keeping some exposure there, on the "derivative-meltdown" longshot scenario. Just not very much (<1% of total assets). RDN and MTG look interesting, as do the builders. Despite the claims of some, building remains a heavily cyclical industry. Just because they survived in '90-'93 doesn't mean they are immune to a growth slowdown in the industry. Again, look at the oil drillers to see what happens to cyclical industries as growth peaks...it ain't purty!
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]
Lots of head and shoulders being "built" in the builders:
Lennar (textbook H&S, rising neckline, measures 25-ish):
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]
Pulte (pretty...a combined double top-inside-a H&S, measures to around 20):
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]
Toll Brothers (double top measures to 16):
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]
You get the idea. When chart-chasing and fundamentals reinforce each other, it's time to act. My very humble opintion only. |
