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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 170.90

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Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (14506)	9/2/2001 7:56:59 PM
From: John Biddle	Read Replies (1) of 196568

Saturday, September 1, 2001 DoCoMo To Launch 3G Cell Phone Service Oct 1 TOKYO (Nikkei)--NTT DoCoMo Inc. (9437) has decided to begin the world's first full-scale commercial 3G third-generation) cellular phone service Oct. 1, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned Friday. A few thoughts about how this might work out. . . In October SK Telecom began a rollout of 1X in Korea. It took them 9 months to get to 370K subscribers, though momentum by that time was strong and the 10th month (July 2001) they added 240K more for a total of 610K. Message 16201185 I believe that NTT DoCoMo has an even more dominant position within Japan than SKT does within Korea, but they seem close enough to me to make a decent comparison. Japan is roughly 2.5 times as populous as ROK so they ought to be able to do substantially better than Korea from a raw numbers perspective, assuming the wireless penetration rates are similar. I don't have those, but I don't think one country's rate is vastly different from the others (correct me here, thread, if I err). It will be much harder for NTT to roll out because they have to put up new towers and base stations and that will slow them down. Net, I'd bet you don't see half a million WCDMA subscribers in Japan in the 12 months after they actually begin the rollout. By that time, I believe you'll see at least 5 Million 1X for SK Telecom, with millions more from LG & KT. I'm also not convinced that NTT will actually get to begin their rollout in Oct. for one reason or another.

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