Art, in the end I think your point boils down to the issue of whether there is really any compelling need for wireless data -- i.e., the "killer app" we've been talking about for a long time. I admit that remains to be seen. But if there is a compelling need, all the elephants and the Nokias and the AT&T's in the world won't be able to stop the company that gets it into the marketplace first (will this be Sprint? not such a small company). Because as soon as people see their neighbor using it, they will want it. And they will switch to the competitor, or the competitor will get capital someplace to make it happen.
Your analogy to the Japanese / US car market is not compelling because there is no longer a wide gulf between the technology / quality of Japanese cars and US cars. Remember that US cars were losing market share very rapidly when there was such a perceived or real difference. If any car maker had a dramatically superior product all the GMs and Fords in the world would not be able to stop the market share loss to that competitor (at least in a free market; and ours is still not so politically blocked that real competition does not exist, as in Europe.)
Your analogy to Betamax / VHS is also not compelling because there was not such a dramatic difference in the product that people simply had to have Betamax. Again, if there really is a dramatic need for wireless data voice alone cannot prevail. And at this point, anybody who is going to be seriously doing wireless data will use CDMA. And the cost of upgrading for those who are already using CMDA is not so capital intensive as to prevent anybody from upgrading (i.e., Verizon, Sprint).
I also don't agree that the Supreme Court is blatantly guided by political motives. You're obviously disappointed about the election. But these guys -- i.e. Rehnquist, etc. -- have nothing to gain by being political toadies. There is no higher office to which they can aspire. Like everybody, they have ideological inclinations. But you're talking blatant corruption, and I think the Supreme Court is bigger than that. |
