Richard, I 'll try and answer your questions best I can:
- Cabot's had nothing that readers of this thread didn't already know.
They were all positive of course.He said " we think the low 40s are
a fine entry point for long term investors and are adding Vivus to our
model portfolio." This reccommendation of course was made to his
higher paying subscribers to his phone info service when the stocl
was ~ 44.5! For reasons I will explain I doubt strongly Vivus will
ever see 46 3/4 & below again.
-Projections for sales, earnings,stock price, cost of goods, profit
margin: The sky is the limit? ( in my modest opinion; count the number
of impotent people around the world; THE ONLY REASON THEY AREN'T
HAVING 1 bill in sales RIGHT NOW is because the Company GROSSLY
UNDERESTIMATED THEIR POTENTIAL FOR SUCCESS AND WERE TOO , I REPEAT,
TOO CONSERVATIVE.Which is ok however other wise you could theoretically
end up like Boston Chicken. ( I refer our readers to today's issue of
Invest Bus Daily on further details about Boston Chicken's saga!!).
Cost of goods I think IS LOW.They put NO money in discovering Alprostadil:
that reaserch has been done ~ X 10 years by others primarily Upjohn
I think. Same with the forthcoming Prazosin. Their margin maybe as high
as 50 -60%!! if not 70%!
-New market approval is for ~'99. I think right now the main thing is
worring about getting Muse out the door as fast as you can and ship out
around the world.World approval I don't think will be long because they are
as anxious as the US to get it since THERE IS NOTHING OUT THERE!
I want to make a quick comment about threaders who question the number of
people overseas that can afford Muse: get a life,guys and gals! If nobody has
yet ,then I suggest you take a trip at the Cote D'Azur ( French Riviera),
Portofino, Capri ( Italian Riviera ), Picaddily Circus downtown London,
Paris, Rome ,Zurich, Berlin,Toronto ( some of theplaces I've been ),and look around! as well
as places I haven't been from Melbourne, Rio de Janeiro,Oslo( to name
a few, AND LOOK AROUND CAREFULLY and tell me what you see.
-New rates of production should be kickin in even as we speak.
-New products, as their reports have indicated, they are working on
6 new products and it is exciting since there are so many
vasodilators approved already by the FDA for systemic use that can
be used locally.
-I am certain new coverage will begin,with a buy reccommend.,after
their Q2 EPS report as new data show that the company is on track.
This am the stock activity was interesting; I was thinking there might
have been a possibilty of the stock going down,because of the old " buy
on rumor sell on the news ", and for a moment at 1020 I thought that
is what was about to happen as the stock took a sudden dip to 49 3/8
with 20 ask @ 49.5 and only 2 bid @49 3/8; I thought people would start
to panic and start unloading.( I thought perhaps the MMs were at it ).
Well, nothing happened! In fct the stock for the next 10 min sold AT A
HIGHER PRICE, 49 5/8! ie I thought people didn't appear scared wanting to
sell Vivus. Since then it's been fairly stable ~ 49.5 .
It appears that very few shorts are coming out and covering.They are still
hoping for dip to 40? The longer we base at 50 the better it will be because
that will become the new floor: Any body out of the 5 mill shorts out
there that wants to cover, or any new buyers ,WIL HAVE TO BUY IT AT 50 or
above; however since the supply is so limited that is bound to start
making inroads towards 56 -58 the next resistance point. If we can then
get to 60 and stay there a few days then we can start moving towards
62-65. I think this is were meaningfull, full blast , short covering/squeeze
will begin which may give us ~ 15 points ( if Jabil circuit's 13.5 point
squeeze is an indicator;Jabil also had a smaller short interest than Vivus.).
-I will try and locate through some connections the First Boston analysts' report
as well as Genesis Merchant for people to look at.
I think the real test of the long term investor will be when Vivus
reaches 70-80 during a short squeeze, between now and ?Aug-Sept?, will
investors avoid taking a profit, and wait for the big Kahuna gain
when Q4 production kicks in in Nov and Vivus will be more prominent in the
headlines, heading to?....90? 100? Also, for Genesis Merchant afficionados
Wohle Faemi's $ 150 1 year target price is only a few months March '98 )
away!!! .
I will post this now and follow it with my personal vision of Erectile Dysfunction
therapy in America in 1-2 years from now. |
