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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (8455)9/2/2001 11:57:47 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
JT; Just my focus on the TA of the Money Market fund,
as it compares ( relative ) to ( major bull & bear funds )
I did not put in the Banking or Gold as of yet.
--------------
As you know I use your data to look at the shares out
in the funds , ( daily money in/out ) after filtering
out the change in TA due to Nav change
well I added a new twist using the Money Market..
-----------------------
Taking my window from March 26 to now,
this twist lets me see ( percentage ) swings in the Money Market
relative to the( percentage )Total TA..the extreme swings
are about 70% letting me see what amount of MM is
average to the average total of fund TAs.
0 zero would be average, and indicate flat in this time window.

MM 36.39% above the average TA was the high point for MM
on April4th ; LOW hit ( - 34.60% ) on My 21st..
Nice swing...looking at it from that angle.
We hit 25.44% Aug 17th ( not extreme but still very Bullish )
of course some of the MM goes to short funds at times
and can skew things around some.
------------------
To keep it more simple and just use the Two major
Bull Funds Nova and OTC , thus filtering out the
very short term traders and speculators.
( in spite of the market being down even the
short term Bears have been timing things wrong
and the average one has lost money )
---------------
Back to just the longer term Bull players.
0 zero being the mean average.
The high MM on April 4th was 46.95% above
average ( relative to the TA of the funds )
The Low MM was -38% below average
on May 21st.
I like this last way of doing it best.
It just hit 33.75% on the 30th , not as
extreme as the April 4th low, but it's
the next best high in the window.
It's been bouncing around a lot lately
but looks good and bullish enough for me.
-------------
I went long the 29th and added on the 30th.
and I plan to add on any more down side
as long as the MM ( relative ) to the TAs in
NOVA and OTC stays above 9 0r 10% of it's average,
I'll exit if it falls to a( - 10%)
-------------
When it comes to the market Everything is relative.
I don't base my analysis on any arbitrary historic number
with out looking at how it's relative percentage wise.
MM went bullish on the 30th more than any time
since April 4th, & it could go more but I can't tell
if it will or not. ( I've got about 50% more dry powder
if it does )
Jim
PS, I lost a little on my last play as I ducked
out on the 27th, but I'm coming back in cheaper
and it was my first timing miss since March,
and I only need the NDX to move up
another 1% to get that back.
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