Hi Patron, Hang Seng, Nikkei, then Dow, all racing for 7000, and stop there if we are lucky and promise to be good to our parents.
Just a wild stabbing guess in the dark based on challenging previous science fictions of Hong Kong is special, Japan is different, and US is in sustainable new era high productivity sweet spot.
- Given the still very high asset pricing in HK, Hang Seng at 7,000 would not be that surprising.
- Should Japan unemployment starts to hurt, I see no particular reason why Japanese valuation can not reach international norm (12-15 times sustainable earnings) during a washout.
- Dow, at 6,000 would be simply reverting to trend.
No one has a map for where we are collectively headed into, and as prepared as I am, I do not want to go for the ride, hoping that Greenspan can save us. I am only hoping. Not counting on it.
Chugs, Jay |
