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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 36.82

+1.5%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: tcmay who wrote (142633)	9/3/2001 12:24:43 PM
From: Saturn V	Read Replies (1) of 186894

Hi Tim, <... 1000X Factor> Nice analysis. 1000X in 15 years. Shall we call it Mays law ;-). However the 1000x improvement in processor speed was probably not true in the previous 15 years. The computing world was dominated by bipolar technology and improvements in speed were much slower. Bipolar Transistors were much faster than MOS in 60's and 70's, but as the feature sizes shrank MOS devices overtook bipolar speed. And MOS continues to improve at a record rate ! Another 1000x in the next 15years ! I hope so, but I doubt if we will get the same performance benefit of the last 15 years. A lot of transistors will be chewed up by the need to limit power dissipation on chip, and the on board cache will chew up most of the transistors, and fewer transistors will be used to gain more parallelism. The challenges for computer architects will be how to use the larger transistor budgets to improve thruput. SMT is the latest innovation which addresses some of the challenges, but there will need to be more innovations. As usual we shall see interesting times.

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