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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Captain Jack who wrote (17564)9/3/2001 3:56:20 PM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
WRONG-- he had the bubble burst! There were indications the economy was slowing.>>>>

i'll admit i think the last .5 hike was excessive, but we need a little perspective, the nyse A/D line bottomed a one year cratering slide just before that last hike and has been in a bull trend since,

and AG's rate hikes had less importance on the bubble bursting than most people think imo, the bubble was constructed on a belief that we were in a new economy and the tech revolution was just in it's infancy, and that tech stocks were bullet proof and that these web companies were gonna put all the brick and mortar companies out of business, investor's believed this so strongly that they margined themselves to excess, believing this was a no-brainer, they bid up money losing companies with unsure business plans to market caps that exceeded whole american industries market caps.

after the crash in april 00 (mostly technical, imo), i think investors started seeing these ipo's bent on running out of cash, first the dot.com's bleed, then that spilled over into the rest of the tech suppliers, who lost a big customer base, plus at that time the market for computer's in business (y2k) and the public was getting saturated yadda yadda, so the previous bubble expectations started to evaporate, and so did the bubble, investor's had become to believe that the tech revolution was in it's infancy, just as it was reaching maturity.

interest rates and fomc are convenient scapegoats, but the bubble inflated despite rate hikes, and it is collapsing despite rate drops.

b
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