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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner
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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (13331)9/3/2001 10:49:47 PM
From: Tom Hua  Read Replies (1) of 19633
 
Roger, another day another new 17-yr low for the Nikkei. At this rate it'll slide pass the Dow in a week. And this thing was shining at 40,000 a decade ago. Unbelievable.

Of course it didn't go straight down. Similar to an earthquake, a bubble market (Nikkei, Nasdaq) crash is subsequently followed by many aftershocks which have built on short term bear rallies. The aftershocks get weaker in magnitude and fewer in frequency as time passes. The Naz saw two bear rallies and subsequent sell-offs this year, with lower highs and lower lows. The first rally was in Jan, sold off in Feb/March. Second bear rally started in April and lasted till June. And we know what happened in July and August. I think the current aftershock will end late Sept. My guess is another bear rally is about to be born starting late this month/early next month. The rise will be slower than last time but will last a little longer and give investors hope when they celebrate the new year.

I'm going to be in the long camp this Fall.

Looking ahead a few years out, nobody has the slightest clue but that doesn't stop spin doctors from making wild guesses. So here's mine:

In 2002 Nasdaq will trade around 2000 +/- 500 pts.

In 2003 Nasdaq will trade around 2000 +/- 500 pts.

In 2004 Nasdaq will trade around 2000 +/- 500 pts.

Regards,

Tom
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