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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: hueyone who wrote (46123)	9/3/2001 11:32:30 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (3) of 54805

In fairness to the authors, I assume these lines first appeared in the introduction of the original manual in 1998---well before the bubble and its attendant risk had arrived in full force. This is actually a controversial and rather important issue. Why? Because how one defines "the bubble" is crucial for guessing what will happen next. The bears were bearish all throughout the late 90s; think of Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment, prompted by gurubear Robert Shiller, in 1996. If they were/are correct, then the bubble hasn't fully deflated and we have a long way further to fall. The bulls were reasonably bullish through late 2000. If they were/are correct, we may rise again and reconquer the world (yeah, right). One could, as you do, describe the bubble as occurring from, oh, perhaps early 99 to early 00, which would mean it has now been pricked and we can go back to a steady-state market, or even an upward trending one. But practically nobody called it that way at the time, which is why one of the lessons I am in the process of drawing from the last three years is that nobody knows jack about market direction. tekboy/Ares@butunlikemetheydon'tadmitit.com

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